During the campaign for the Dec. 7 elections for
the Russian parliament, President Vladimir Putin declared corruption
a threat to national security that must be countered by imposing
"law and order." His proclamation followed the Oct. 25 arrest
at gunpoint of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the controlling shareholder
of Russia's largest oil firm Yukos, on grounds of forgery and
tax evasion. Speculation is rife that officials loyal to the president
singled out Khodorkovsky for criminal prosecution due to his growing
financial support of opposition parties in the parliament.
The stakes raised by the Putin government's actions are high
for Western governments, multilateral banks and foreign investors
that have bet Russia is headed toward democratic capitalism.
By leading Yukos to accept standards of corporate governance,
Khodorkovsky had become exhibit A for the case that Russia should
be included in western institutions as a market economy. In
response to the prosecution, U.S. Senators John McCain and Joe
Lieberman have introduced a bill to exclude Russia from the
G-8 group of market democracies.
On Dec. 7, the President's party, United Russia, along with
nationalist parties that promise to re-claim Russia's wealth
from billionaires such as Khodorkovsky, won effective control
of the parliament. Now that Putin has consolidated his power
and Khodorkovsky sits in jail awaiting trial, how will the president
use his mandate to promote "law and order" and social justice?
How should the west respond?
In order to attack corruption, the president must demonstrate
that no one is above the law. Notwithstanding their recent commitment
to corporate governance, Khodorkovsky and other Russian business
leaders continue to use patrons in the government to secure
favorable decrees, licenses, tenders and tax treatment. This
practice has become so pervasive that Russia suffers from "state
capture," a condition where it cannot operate as a law-based
state, regulate markets fairly and allocate resources efficiently.
Putin, however, cannot ensure equality before the law if government
officials have the discretion to engage in selective prosecution.
Following Khodorkovsky's arrest, the Russian prosecutor's office
froze public trading in certain shares of Yukos, which have
now fallen in price by over 30 percent. Yukos has been unable
to merge with the Russian oil company Sibneft on terms that
would have created one of the largest oil companies in the world.
The result of the investigation is that Yukos' property is being
re-distributed by prosecutorial fiat.
Putin has sought to assure western parties that Khodorkovsky
will receive a fair and open trial. Many are inclined to give
the president the benefit of the doubt. After a recent meeting
with the president, the chair of the International Monetary
Fund stated that the prosecution of Khodorkovsky does not signify
a reversal of economic and legal reform.
Such "happy talk" misconstrues the dilemma the West faces in
Russia today. Though the Putin government has adopted new commercial
laws and criminal procedures, it has not shaped institutions
capable of executing, adjudicating, or enforcing them. Absent
such institutions, neither property nor contract rights are
enforceable.
In the 1990s, despite concerns that Russia was privatizing
state enterprises too quickly, the IMF, World Bank and foreign
governments agreed to financially support the process. This
"Washington consensus" was based on the belief that an independent
judiciary and other institutions would sprout naturally to protect
the private wealth of a middle class spawned by privatization.
Instead of a middle class, Russia's rapid privatization empowered
a class of "rent-seekers" - those who profit by using access
to power to control state assets. Instead of a rule of law,
rent-seekers created the "law of rules." Under this system,
state institutions, including the public prosecutor, the courts
and the bailiffs, can be manipulated to re-examine or reverse
the privatization of Yukos or any Russian company.
Under the law of rules, there are no free rides for foreign
investors. Any business, even one with clean hands, may have
its property taken, its profits squeezed, its people prosecuted
as criminals. For example, in the name of vaguely defined "state
interests," officials in Russia's regions have engaged in "discretionary
expropriation" of foreign businesses sanctioned by local courts.
The evidence is mounting that Russia seeks to engineer the
construction of a market economy without a rule of law based
on a strict separation of powers. In order to hold Russia accountable
to protect private property, western stakeholders must find
common language with President Putin over the precise role of
institutions in building a law-based state.
Recently, Prime Minister Kasyanov declared that the Putin government
will eventually seek to bring the public prosecutor under the
control of the Ministry of Justice. In the meantime, to restore
confidence in the investment climate, the Putin government must
strictly define and curb the public prosecutor's discretion.
Putin officials should clarify how a Russian court can exercise
independent judgment where the public prosecutor, or any other
government agency, is representing state interests.
As a threat to Russia's national security, corruption should
be a priority matter of mutual concern to president Putin and
his supporters in the West. Western stakeholders should closely
monitor the results of the president's efforts to re-capture
the Russian state from special interests. For example, on Nov.
24, he created the "Anti-Corruption Council" to uncover conflicts
of interest among government officials. In order to attack the
institutional roots of corruption, however, Putin must also
be convinced to empower independent courts and allow a free
press.
As a sovereign nation, Russia has the right to establish its
own rules of the game. Western stakeholders, however, have the
right both to know the rules and to expect that they cannot
be changed at will. Currently, rent-seekers can control both
process and outcome. Western parties are entitled to know whether
Russia intends to build a market governed not by men, but by
institutions and laws.
Matthew H. Murray is president of Sovereign Ventures,
Inc., a management consultancy firm specializing in Russia and
the Independent States.